Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Ludo Regionals
decks
14
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
50-15-9
overall winrate
73.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.3%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
63.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1424
· range 1208–1642
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1163
Q3 1353
1685
64% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.7% | 16 | 10-4-2 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 60.2% | +4.1 |
| Wind Allies | 16.3% | 15 | 13-2-0 | 86.7% | 78.9% | 71.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 16 | 9-4-3 | 65.6% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 67.9% | +10.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 7 | 1-3-3 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 39.3% | -5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.5% | +7.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Water Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (7 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Potion Infusion: Seal, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Scry the Skies. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Library Witch, Resolute Stand.
Potion Infusion: Seal
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Scry the Skies
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Chalice of Blood
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Savage Slash
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.75 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.62 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 2 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |